天山南坡高冰川覆盖率的木扎提河流域水文过程对气候变化的响应   总被引：5，自引：5，他引：0  

赵求东  赵传成  秦艳  苌亚平  王建 《冰川冻土》2020,42(4):1285-1298

木扎提河是天山南坡冰川面积覆盖率最大（48.2%）的河流， 流域径流过程对气候变化极为敏感， 为了合理管理和规划水资源， 确保水资源的可持续利用， 亟需定量评估气候变化对该流域水文过程的影响。以VIC-CAS分布式水文模型为计算平台， 利用实测的径流和两次冰川编目间的冰川面积变化数据开展了模型的多目标参数化校正和验证， 有效提高了模拟结果的“真实性”， 然后通过数值模拟结果结合观测数据定量解析了流域径流的组成、 变化特征及对气候变化的响应机理。结果表明： 木扎提河总径流集中在暖季（5 - 9月）， 占全年总径流量的77.9%， 冰川径流、 融雪径流和降雨径流分别占总径流量的66.6%、 26.4%和7.0%。1971 - 2010年木扎提河流域气温和降水呈显著增加趋势， 由于降水的增加， 降雨和融雪径流均呈增加趋势， 但冰川径流呈现明显减少趋势， 导致总径流呈现下降趋势。在RCP4.5情景下， 未来该流域气温呈现明显升高趋势， 降水表现为微弱下降趋势； 气候变暖后， 更多降水以降雨形式发生， 未来降雨径流将明显增加， 降雪和融雪径流已于20世纪90年代达到峰值， 随后明显减少； 冰川面积将持续萎缩， 冰川径流于21世纪10年代达到拐点， 随后明显减少， 导致河道总径流量也将明显减少。  相似文献   

Redox evolution of western Tianshan subduction zone and its effect on deep carbon cycle     

《地学前缘(英文版)》2020,11(3):915-924

Knowing the phase relations of carbon-bearing phases at high-pressure(HP) and high-temperature(HT) condition is essential for understanding the deep carbon cycle in the subduction zones.In particular,the phase relation of carbon-bearing phases is also strongly influenced by redox condition of subduction zones,which is poorly explored.Here we summarized the phase relations of carbon-bearing phases(calcite,aragonite,dolomite,magnesite,graphite,hydrocarbon) in HP metamorphic rocks(marble,metapelite,eclogite) from the Western Tianshan subduction zone and high-pressure experiments.During prograde progress of subduction,carbonates in altered oceanic crust change from Ca-carbonate(calcite) to Ca,Mg-carbonate(dolomite),then finally to Mgcarbonate(magnesite) via Mg-Ca cation exchange reaction between silicate and carbonate,while calcite in sedimentary calcareous ooze on oceanic crust directly transfers to high-pressure aragonite in marble or amorphous CaCO3 in subduction zones.Redox evolution also plays a significant effect on the carbon speciation in the Western Tianshan subduction zone.The prograde oxygen fugacity of the Western Tianshan subduction zone was constrained by mineral assemblage of garnet-omphacite from FMQ-1.9 to FMQ-2.5 at its metamorphic peak(maximum P-T) conditions.In comparison with redox conditions of other subduction zones,Western Tianshan has the lowest oxygen fugacity.Graphite and light hydrocarbon inclusions were ubiqutously identified in Western Tianshan HP metamorphic rocks and speculated to be formed from reduction of Fe-carbonate at low redox condition,which is also confirmed by high-pressure experimental simulation.Based on petrological observation and high-pressure simulation,a polarized redox model of reducing slab but oxidizing mantle wedge in subduction zone is proposed,and its effect on deep carbon cycle in subduction zones is further discussed.  相似文献   

2001-2015年间我国陆地植被覆盖度时空变化及驱动力分析          下载免费PDF全文

赵明伟  王妮  施慧慧  江岭  王春 《干旱区地理》2019,42(2):324-331

本文基于MODIS-NDVI遥感数据反演计算了我国陆地2001—2015年地表植被覆盖度的空间分布，讨论了植被覆盖度的时空变化规律，分析了影响植被覆盖度近十几年来动态变化的主要驱动因素。研究结果表明：我国陆地植被覆盖度从2001—2015年，植被覆盖度总体上呈增加趋势，其中淮河流域、华北平原地区、以及黄土高原地区增加趋势显著。根据植被覆盖度在时间序列上的变化特征，可将其变化类型分为持续增长型、先减小后增长等六种类型，其中农业种植区基本为一直增长型，而主要森林覆盖区，特别是西南地区的植被覆盖度在研究时段内表现出波动性的变化特征。降水是驱动华北平原北部，内蒙古，以及西北大部分区域植被覆盖度动态变化的重要因素，东北、青藏高原等地区植被覆盖度受温度的影响较大，而在中国东南沿海地区，光照条件是影响该区域植被覆盖度的主要因素。  相似文献   

Direct finite element method for nonlinear earthquake analysis of concrete dams: Simplification,modeling, and practical application     

Arnkjell Løkke  Anil K. Chopra 《地震工程与结构动力学》2019,48(7):818-842

A direct finite element (FE) method for nonlinear response history analysis of semi-unbounded dam-water-foundation systems has recently been presented. The analysis procedure employs standard viscous-damper absorbing boundaries to model the semi-unbounded foundation and fluid domains and specifies the seismic input as effective earthquake forces—determined from a control motion defined at the foundation surface—at these boundaries. Presented in this paper are several simplifications to this direct FE method that greatly facilitates its implementation in commercial FE software. Also addressed is the modeling of the principal nonlinear mechanisms for concrete dams, calibration of damping in the numerical model to ensure consistency with values measured at actual dams, and practical procedures for implementation of the direct FE method with a commercial FE program.  相似文献   

The evolution of brittle and ductile structures at the surface of a partly debris-covered,rapidly thinning and slowly moving glacier in 1998–2012 (Pasterze Glacier,Austria)     

Andreas Kellerer-Pirklbauer  Bernd Kulmer 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(5):1034-1049

Many glaciers in alpine regions are currently rapidly receding and thinning at historically unobserved rates causing changes in the velocity field and in normal and shear stresses affecting the surface expression of structures within the ice. We studied the distribution of brittle and ductile structures at the surface of Pasterze Glacier during a 14-year period by analysing orthophotos and digital elevation models of five stages (1998, 2003, 2006, 2009 and 2012). A structural glaciological mapping key was applied. Normal faults, strike-slip faults, en échelon structures (systematic stepping of fractures), thrust faults, and band ogives were distinguished. Results indicate substantial deceleration and glacier thinning in 1998–2012. Glacier thinning was not homogenous over time related to the uneven distribution of supraglacial debris causing differential ablation or the selective ablation effects of subglacial water channels. Peculiar supraglacial features observed are circular collapse structures with concentric crevasses which form when the ice between the surface and the roof of water channels decreases. The total length of brittle structures increased from 38.4 km to 56.9 km whereas the extent of the glacier tongue decreased by 25%. The fracture density doubled from 0.009 to 0.018 m/m². Areas of the glacier tongue which were up to 100 m away from the nearest brittle structure increased by 16%. The visual appearance of thrust faults shifted upglacier due to decreasing glacier velocity causing horizontal shortening or due to exhumation of faults that did not previously extend to the surface. A large number of brittle structures are progressively independent from glacier motion. Our study suggests that glacier tongues which are in a state of rapid decay and thinning are prone to fracturing due to normal fault formation and glacier disintegration. Water further increases ablation rates substantially if rather large amounts drain through supra-, en- or subglacial water channels. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

基于傅里叶级数的中国沿海地区Tm模型精化研究     

刘立龙  万庆同  周威  黄良珂  黎峻宇 《大地测量与地球动力学》2019,39(11):1137-1141

本文采用中国沿海地区13个探空站2010~2014年实测地表温度T_s与平均温度T_m数据，利用傅里叶级数分析法精化中国沿海地区T_m模型，并将2015年探空站实测T_m数据与精化模型进行对比检验。结果表明，精化模型在T_m探测方面具有更高的计算精度，其计算大气可降水量的误差概率分布趋近于正态分布，具有较强的稳定性。  相似文献   

重庆地震应急资料产出系统研发与应用     

龚丽文  陈石  郭卫英  黄世源  李翠平  高见 《地震地磁观测与研究》2020,41(5):192-199

地震应急资料具有较强的时效性、专业性和多学科融合的特点。中强地震发生后启动应急响应，工作人员需在短时间内产出多学科、跨领域、多手段的专业地震会商资料。以地震会商系统为平台，利用其灵活开发、自动计算和智能分析的优势，建立地震应急资料产出系统（包括会商资料处理模块、应急图件产出模块和震情报告生成模块），通过地震触发，根据预设流程和报告模板，自动产出专业报告，为震情形势研判和震后应急救援提供专业可靠的应急资料，最大限度地发挥应急救援和灾损评估的效能。  相似文献   

2020年1月19日新疆伽师MS6.4地震序列特征及后续趋势分析     

向元  聂晓红  李金  刘建明 《内陆地震》2020,(1):20-29

介绍2020年1月18日新疆伽师M S5.4和1月19日M S6.4两次地震的基本参数、震源机制解、精定位等资料,分析伽师M S6.4地震序列类型、序列衰减特征和余震序列各项数字地震学资料,并就该序列与历史地震序列进行对比,提出震后趋势判定意见。分析认为,该序列为前—主—余型,余震序列衰减较为迅速。  相似文献   

捷联式航空重力扰动矢量解算及误差补偿     

郭栋  孙中苗  吴富梅  张琪 《大地测量与地球动力学》2018,38(12):1295-1301

介绍捷联式航空重力矢量测量的基本原理，利用波数相关滤波（WCF）、比力线性校正的方法对重力扰动的水平和垂向分量进行误差补偿，评定内符合精度。对国产捷联式航空重力矢量仪的某次试验数据进行处理，以验证和评估航空重力矢量仪的性能。结果表明，在半波长分辨率为7.5 km时，6条重复测线的重力扰动水平分量经波数相关滤波处理后，东、北向分量的平均内符合精度分别从9.77 mGal、9.18 mGal提高到5.95 mGal、3.83 mGal；对比力的垂向分量线性校正后，将解算的重力扰动垂向分量再用WCF方法处理，其平均内符合精度从1.27 mGal提高到0.59 mGal。  相似文献   

南沙海域海底浅层第四系地震地层结构与地质意义          下载免费PDF全文

陈洁  万荣胜  张金鹏  韩冰  苏世龙 《地球物理学报》2018,61(1):242-249

科技进步使得地震采集数据量及其精度实现质的飞跃，南沙海域的地震调查，采用国际先进水平的等离子震源，获得地震剖面精度优于3 m局部甚至可在1 m之内，为科学研究、工程、浅层资源、地质灾害预警等研究奠定基础.在南沙第四系识别出了七个地震反射界面，确定500 ms至海底沉积区间内地震层序与三期海平面升降并与冰期、间冰期对应，典型地震剖面展示第四纪至少有三套完整的具有三角洲顶积层、前积层、底积层的地震相证据，与全球的第四纪海平面的变化一致.精细的浅层地震结构表明：南沙的地质现象丰富，浅层断层非常发育，下切河谷、泥石流、滑坡等地质遗迹的形成的地震相清晰，是地质活动频繁的地区.  相似文献